The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) expects the upcoming U.S. fall and winter respiratory disease season will likely have a similar combined number of peak hospitalizations due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV compared to last season. CDC’s outlook is based on historical trends, expert opinion, and scenario modeling results.
This outlook serves as a baseline for what could occur during the 2025-2026 season. It is intended to provide decision-makers with information to assist in public health preparedness for respiratory virus illnesses during the 2025-2026 fall and winter respiratory season (defined as October through mid-May). This includes when hospitals might experience the most demand due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV. We will update this outlook every two months or as warranted during the respiratory season.
CDC expects that the combined peak hospitalization rate due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV will be similar (within 20% of the 2024-2025 peak) to that of last season, with low to moderate confidence, based on historical trends, expert opinion, and scenario modeling results. Combined peak hospitalization burden depends on the timing as well as the magnitude of each disease peak during the respiratory season. There is historic variability in both the timing and magnitude of hospital demand for each of the three diseases.
Visit CDC.gov to read the full outlook.
