CDC expects the upcoming fall and winter respiratory disease season will likely have a similar or lower number of combined peak hospitalizations due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV compared to last season.
This outlook is intended to provide decision-makers with information to assist in public health preparedness for respiratory virus illnesses during the 2024-2025 fall and winter respiratory season, such as when hospitals might experience the most demand.
The assessments are based on expert opinion, historical data, and scenario modeling conducted by the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV. As with all long-range scenarios, there is inherent uncertainty, which we describe below.
While we expect this season’s peak hospitalization rate will be similar to or lower than last year, there is still a risk of a higher peak rate, underscoring the need to consider this possibility in planning and preparedness activities. The following factors could drive higher peak rate:
- Emergence of a new COVID-19 variant with an increased ability to evade the body’s prior immunity, or a new COVID-19 variant associated with higher clinical severity.
- Predominance of an influenza subtype with more severe outcomes.
- Lower vaccine uptake or effectiveness, including:
- If there is lower than projected uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine, influenza seasonal vaccine, or RSV vaccines and immunizations.
- If the updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization is lower than that of the 2023-2024 vaccine.
- If influenza seasonal vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization is lower than projected.
To take a closer look at the COVID-19, influenza and RSV outlook, view the full article here.
