HomeLatest NewsHospice/Palliative Care NewsStudy: Dementia cases estimated to double by 2060

Study: Dementia cases estimated to double by 2060

Dementia cases in the U.S. are expected to double by 2060, reaching 1 million new cases per year, according to a study released Jan. 13 by NYU Langone Health. The study found that the risk of developing dementia any time after age 55 is 42%, more than double the risk reported in prior studies. The study authors attributed previous underestimates of dementia risk to unreliable documentation in health records and on death certificates, minimal surveillance of early-stage dementia cases and underreporting of cases by race.

The study authors attribute the previous underestimates of dementia risk to unreliable documentation of the illness in health records and on death certificates, minimal surveillance of early-stage cases of dementia, and the underreporting of cases among racial minority groups, which are disproportionately vulnerable.

This large study is a collaboration funded by the National Institutes of Health to NYU Langone Health and includes authors from Johns Hopkins University and other U.S. institutions. The new study relies on information gathered from the ongoing Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS), which since 1987 has closely tracked the vascular health and cognitive function of nearly 16,000 participants as they age. ARIC-NCS is also, the researchers say, the longest-followed cohort of African Americans for researching cognition and heart health.

Published in the journal Nature Medicine online January 13, the study concludes that from 1987 until 2020, there were 3,252 study participants who were documented as having developed dementia. This translates to an overall lifetime risk for dementia among middle-aged Americans of 42 percent, which is an average of the 35 percent risk in men and the 48 percent risk in women. The excess risk in women was largely due to their lower death rates.

The new results also showed a higher risk among Black adults and in those who carried a variant of the APOE4 gene (between 45 percent and 60 percent), which codes for a protein that carries cholesterol and other lipids in the bloodstream. Having a certain version of APOE4 is thought to be the single biggest genetic risk factor in developing late-onset Alzheimer’s disease.

To view the full study, visit NYU Langone Health, here.

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